My Race Prediction

I’m racing tomorrow in my first 5 km race of 2016. What does one do on the eve of a race?  Besides taking pictures of their flat running outfits (presuming you found all the right gear), relax, fuel and hydrate properly, they try to predict their race time. No? Just me?

Well, since I’ve started racing competitively in September of 2014, I’ve seen a P.R at every race. I realize that I will eventually reach my peak and that it won’t be so easy to get that coveted P.R. Since my first race in 2014, I’ve since ran 3 x 5 km races with chip times. There were other charity races that didn’t have chip time so I’ve disqualified those results for my prediction.

Looking at the graph below, it seems like my race time is going down at an exponential rate (but there isn’t any significant data yet), which means that my improvements are slowly tapering. Race times were as follows

September 2014: 27:54

April 2015: 26:26

September 2015: 25:26

April 2016:    ?

Based on my past performance, and the differences between races are tapering, I’m predicting (and making my goal) of a final race time of 24:59.  I’m aiming for a sub 25 min race.  That means to do this, I need to run under 5 min/km on average. I’m going to make 4:55 minutes my goal for each kilometer.

Am I setting myself up for a fail? It’s quite possible, but I love seeing improvements so I’m going to try my best.

My son is also running for the first time tomorrow. He’ll be doing the 1 km race and it’s his first race ever! I can’t wait to write this Race Recap (coming Monday).

So, have a good night, I’m going to get my race gear ready, relax and foam roll ad tomorrow will see an early start. See you Monday for a #MotivateMe post.

Join the conversation:

• Do you set time goals for your races?
• Do you just run races for the fun of it, or do you compete against yourself?